Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
